Spring seasonal outlook

September 2019

Seasonal outlook

Matthew Lieschke Senior Agriculture Advisor

The South East seasonal outlook for spring 2019 is now available. In looking ahead, the projected pasture conditions for this spring can be categorised into three groups:

1. The ‘eastern fall’ sites which include Taralga, Bungonia, Lake Bathurst, Braidwood and Sutton Forest. Soil conditions are extremely dry at these locations as they are on the eastern side of the range and recorded far less August rainfall. These sites are projected to have a very tough spring and are likely to require significant changes to normal management. For example, selling young stock early and doing a ‘clean up’ cull of breeding females. It’s important to remember that summer storms are possible at these locations and should be considered in planned actions.
2. The ‘central’ sites which include Gunning, Bannister, Wheeo, Laggan and Bigga. Some of these sites had reasonable winter rain and, in some cases, have had good winter pasture growth. These sites, while generally down on soil moisture compared to the normal late winter levels, are likely to experience a tough spring, but one that but can be managed by some fine tuning of management. Rain in the first half of September will be critical at Gunning and Bigga due to lower elevation and drier soil conditions. Sites at higher elevation (800m +) with better soil moisture will be able to withstand a dry start to spring.
3. The ‘western’ sites which include Rugby, Boorowa, Bowning, Bookham, Murrumbateman and Tidbinbilla. Soil moisture, and hence the spring outlook varies quite considerably between these sites. For example, Rugby has had quite good winter rainfall (108mm) and is likely to experience a tough, but manageable spring. In contrast, Boorowa is much drier, has a high chance of a very poor spring and is likely to require significant changes to normal management. For example, selling young stock early and doing a ‘clean up’ cull of breeding females.

Unfortunately the Bureau of Meteorology is predicting drier and warmer than average conditions for September and October. This is largely due to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) at present.

A positive IOD is typically associated with below average rainfall for large parts of southern and central Australia in spring. Past forecasting accuracy for September and October is high.

If a drier than average spring does eventuate, the major concern will be the lack of carry-over feed and the ability to maintain adequate ground cover during the summer/autumn period. This was a big issue last summer and unfortunately there were cases where significant erosion occurred.

Erosion results in the loss of valuable topsoil and nutrients and has a long-lasting impact on the property. This risk needs to be carefully assessed on an individual basis. Some producers have managed this risk through a significant reduction of stock numbers, while others have used sacrifice areas/drought lots to maintain a certain percentage of core breeders.

Stock water is likely to be a major problem this summer; with some producers already concerned about dam water levels. If water is looming as an issue, it’s important to assess how much water you have (in relation to stock and domestic requirements) and determine early if this is likely to cause destocking.

If major management changes (i.e. early weaning, destocking) are required, seek advice and look at the impacts over the medium term, not just the next 6 months. In any destocking strategy it’s important to consider the impact on the herd/ flock structure, livestock production and cash-flow of the business over a 3 - 5 year period. Decision support tools such as StockPlan can assist in looking at a range of scenarios before a decision is made.

Finally, in drought it’s important to have a plan, to act early, review and plan for the next phase. Be realistic in your assessment of the situation and not underestimate the resources (capital, fodder and management) and personal and family cost to complete a particular course of action. StockPlan can assist in thinking through these difficult issues.

Download the outlook here (3,805KB).